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Massachusetts Liberal

Observations on politics, the media and life in Massachusetts and beyond from the left side of the road.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

A mile wide and an inch deep

Speaking of Globe headline writers, a 21 percent lead in the U.S. Senate primary -- with 50 percent uncertain and 24 percent only leaning in one direction doesn't strike me as a "strong" lead.

Unless your previous life was building houses in south Florida prior to Hurricane Andrew.

Today's Globe poll confirms the perception that the Democratic primary is there for Attorney General Martha Coakley to lose, reaffirming her cautious, no-waves, no-show tactics. It also makes clear that the buckets of dough Steve Pagliuca has dropped may not be paying off as well as his investment in the Celtics.

Coakley benefits from strong name recognition as the only candidate who has previously run statewide. Capuano probably benefits from polling that started a couple of days before his Globe profile.

But most striking is the amazing fluidity of the race two weeks out, with only 26 percent of those surveyed firmly committed to a candidate.

Not that I disagree with pollster Andrew Smith, who declared "things could change, but it would have to go really sour for her over the next few weeks."

Which is what I suspect Capuano and Pags have in store for her in the back-to-back debates after Thanksgiving.

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3 Comments:

Blogger lone ranger said...

Your analysis is spot on...I thought the same thing...It seems to me the Globe is using it's headlines to help Coakley and deminish the rest of the field, especially Capuano

November 22, 2009 9:25 PM  
Blogger Dan Kennedy said...

No one is excited about this race. Coakley is probably going to win because all those undecideds are going to stay home.

November 22, 2009 9:57 PM  
Blogger Outraged Liberal said...

Dan, I would have agreed with you until I read this morning's Globe. I think we will see some movement now that the Globe reported on Coakley's handling of the Geoghan case in the '90s.

November 23, 2009 5:35 AM  

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